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Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The team have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."

Request for Wider Discussion

Westminster should join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."