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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action

The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".

After-Dark Attacks

As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a ability provided through current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.

Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.

With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the near term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.

Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.

Existing Situation

Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.

While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require sustained allied backing.